Development of boldness and docility in yellow-bellied marmots

Peer reviewedPostprin

Observational evidence for a negative shortwave cloud feedback in middle to high latitudes

Exploiting the observed robust relationships between temperature and optical depth in extratropical clouds, we calculate the shortwave cloud feedback from historical data, by regressing observed and modeled cloud property histograms onto local temperature in middle to high southern latitudes. In this region, all CMIP5 models and observational data sets predict a negative cloud feedback, mainly driven by optical thickening. Between 45° and 60°S, the mean observed shortwave feedback (−0.91 ± 0.82 W m−2 K−1, relative to local rather than global mean warming) is very close to the multimodel mean feedback in RCP8.5 (−0.98 W m−2 K−1), despite differences in the meridional structure. In models, historical temperature-cloud property relationships reliably predict the forced RCP8.5 response. Because simple theory predicts this optical thickening with warming, and cloud amount changes are relatively small, we conclude that the shortwave cloud feedback is very likely negative in the real world at middle to high latitudes

Modeling the shape and evolution of normal-fault facets

Facets formed along the footwalls of active normal-fault blocks display a variety of longitudinal profile forms, with variations in gradient, shape, degree of soil cover, and presence or absence of a slope break at the fault trace. We show that a two-dimensional, process-oriented cellular automaton model of facet profile evolution can account for the observed morphologic diversity. The model uses two dimensionless parameters to represent fault slip, progressive rock weathering, and downslope colluvial-soil transport driven by gravity and stochastic disturbance events. The parameters represent rock weathering and soil disturbance rates, respectively, scaled by fault slip rate; both can be derived from field-estimated rate coefficients. In the model's transport-limited regime, slope gradient depends on the ratio of disturbance to slip rate, with a maximum that represents the angle of repose for colluvium. In this regime, facet evolution is consistent with nonlinear diffusion models of soil-mantled hillslope evolution. Under the weathering-limited regime, bedrock becomes partly exposed but microtopography helps trap some colluvium even when facet gradient exceeds the threshold angle. Whereas the model predicts a continuous gradient from footwall to colluvial wedge under transport-limited behavior, fully weathering-limited facets tend to develop a slope break between footwall and basal colluvium as a result of reduced transport efficiency on the rocky footwall slope. To the extent that the model provides a reasonable analogy for natural facets, its behavior suggests that facet profile morphology can provide useful constraints on relative potential rates of rock weathering, soil disturbance, and fault slip

A cryogenic liquid-mirror telescope on the moon to study the early universe

We have studied the feasibility and scientific potential of zenith observing liquid mirror telescopes having 20 to 100 m diameters located on the moon. They would carry out deep infrared surveys to study the distant universe and follow up discoveries made with the 6 m James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), with more detailed images and spectroscopic studies. They could detect objects 100 times fainter than JWST, observing the first, high-red shift stars in the early universe and their assembly into galaxies. We explored the scientific opportunities, key technologies and optimum location of such telescopes. We have demonstrated critical technologies. For example, the primary mirror would necessitate a high-reflectivity liquid that does not evaporate in the lunar vacuum and remains liquid at less than 100K: We have made a crucial demonstration by successfully coating an ionic liquid that has negligible vapor pressure. We also successfully experimented with a liquid mirror spinning on a superconducting bearing, as will be needed for the cryogenic, vacuum environment of the telescope. We have investigated issues related to lunar locations, concluding that locations within a few km of a pole are ideal for deep sky cover and long integration times. We have located ridges and crater rims within 0.5 degrees of the North Pole that are illuminated for at least some sun angles during lunar winter, providing power and temperature control. We also have identified potential problems, like lunar dust. Issues raised by our preliminary study demand additional in-depth analyses. These issues must be fully examined as part of a scientific debate we hope to start with the present article.Comment: 35 pages, 11 figures. To appear in Astrophysical Journal June 20 200

Iterative Design and Usability Testing of the iMHere System for Managing Chronic Conditions and Disability

A novel mobile health platform, Interactive Mobile Health and Rehabilitation (iMHere), is being developed to support wellness and self-management among people with chronic disabilities. The iMHere system currently includes a smartphone app with six modules for use by persons with disabilities and a web portal for use by medical and rehabilitation professionals or other support personnel. Our initial clinical research applying use of this system provides insight into the feasibility of employing iMHere in the development of self-management skills in young adults (ages 18-40 years) with spina bifida (Dicianno, Fairman, McCue, Parmanto, Yih, et al., 2015). This article is focused on describing the iterative design of the iMHere system including usability testing of both the app modules and clinician portal. Our pilot population of persons with spina bifida fostered the creation of a system appropriate for people with a wide variety of functional abilities and needs. As a result, the system is appropriate for use by persons with various disabilities and chronic conditions, not only spina bifida. In addition, the diversity of professionals and support personnel involved in the care of persons with spina bifida (SB) also enabled the design and implementation of the iMHere system to meet the needs of an interdisciplinary team of providers who treat various conditions. The iMHere system has the potential to foster communication and collaboration among members of an interdisciplinary healthcare team, including individuals with chronic conditions and disabilities, for client-centered approach to support self-management skills.

Modeling the Shape and Evolution of Normal-Fault Facets

Facets formed along the footwalls of active normal-fault blocks display a variety of longitudinal profile forms, with variations in gradient, shape, degree of soil cover, and presence or absence of a slope break at the fault trace. We show that a two-dimensional, process-oriented cellular automaton model of facet profile evolution can account for the observed morphologic diversity. The model uses two dimensionless parameters to represent fault slip, progressive rock weathering, and downslope colluvial-soil transport driven by gravity and stochastic disturbance events. The parameters represent rock weathering and soil disturbance rates, respectively, scaled by fault slip rate; both can be derived from field-estimated rate coefficients. In the model's transport-limited regime, slope gradient depends on the ratio of disturbance to slip rate, with a maximum that represents the angle of repose for colluvium. In this regime, facet evolution is consistent with nonlinear diffusion models of soil-mantled hillslope evolution. Under the weathering-limited regime, bedrock becomes partly exposed but microtopography helps trap some colluvium even when facet gradient exceeds the threshold angle. Whereas the model predicts a continuous gradient from footwall to colluvial wedge under transport-limited behavior, fully weathering-limited facets tend to develop a slope break between footwall and basal colluvium as a result of reduced transport efficiency on the rocky footwall slope. To the extent that the model provides a reasonable analogy for natural facets, its behavior suggests that facet profile morphology can provide useful constraints on relative potential rates of rock weathering, soil disturbance, and fault slip.</p

Liquid Phase Cloud Microphysical Property Estimates From CALIPSO Measurements

A neural-network algorithm that uses CALIPSO lidar measurements to infer droplet effective radius, extinction coefficient, liquid-water content, and droplet number concentration for water clouds is described and assessed. These results are verified against values inferred from High-Spectral-Resolution Lidar (HSRL) and Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) measurements made on an aircraft that flew under CALIPSO. The global cloud microphysical properties are derived from 14+ years of CALIPSO lidar measurements, and the droplet sizes are compared to corresponding values inferred from MODIS passive imagery. This new product will provide constraints to improve modeling of Earth’s water cycle and cloud-climate interactions

Opportunistic experiments to constrain aerosol effective radiative forcing

Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The nonlinearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in observed relationships of aerosol radiative forcing. Using correlations to infer causality can be challenging when meteorological variability also drives both aerosol and cloud changes independently. Natural and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations from well-defined sources provide “opportunistic experiments” (also known as natural experiments) to investigate ACI in cases where causality may be more confidently inferred. These perturbations cover a wide range of locations and spatiotemporal scales, including point sources such as volcanic eruptions or industrial sources, plumes from biomass burning or forest fires, and tracks from individual ships or shipping corridors. We review the different experimental conditions and conduct a synthesis of the available satellite datasets and field campaigns to place these opportunistic experiments on a common footing, facilitating new insights and a clearer understanding of key uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing. Cloud albedo perturbations are strongly sensitive to background meteorological conditions. Strong liquid water path increases due to aerosol perturbations are largely ruled out by averaging across experiments. Opportunistic experiments have significantly improved process-level understanding of ACI, but it remains unclear how reliably the relationships found can be scaled to the global level, thus demonstrating a need for deeper investigation in order to improve assessments of aerosol radiative forcing and climate change